Economics Update

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New Home Sales Not Just Ugly, but Fugly!
h/t Calculated Risk

Yesterday, I noted the jump in existing home sales, and posited that this was almost entirely due to people rushing to get in under the wire on the new home buyer house credit, well today, we have the new home sales numbers, and they plunged by 11.3%, which validates my thesis.

Basically, existing home sales numbers are recorded at closing, while new home sales are recorded when the contract is signed, which means that the new home sales numbers lead existing home sales by 30-60 days, so we have a snapshot of what happens when people rushing to secure a tax credit stop rushing, and it ain't pretty.

It also explains why home mortgage application volume fell.

As I've said before, real estate won't lead us out of a recession, it will follow.

On the other hand, personal income and spending rose in November, which is a sign of improvement, and the latest CNN/Opinion Research and Reuters/University of Michigan surveys show an improvement in consumer sentiment, though of the "slightly less suckage" rather than the "going well" variety..

One interesting development in the 3^rd quarter of this year was that central banks have cut purchases of dollars for reserves to a record low, "30 percent of new foreign-exchange reserves," which implies a slow walk away from the dollar by central banks.

Even so, the dollar rose today, and Oil also rose on a surprise drop in inventories………Which raises the question, why are inventories always surprising folks?